Worked example: 135 lb for 5 reps
The seven formulas return 152, 152, 154, 157, 158, 159 and 161 lb. Median 157 lb, spread 9 lb. Because the absolute loads are small, a 6% disagreement is under ten pounds — which is why on this lift the choice of formula barely matters and the state of the set matters a great deal.
What the overhead press does differently
The press has the shortest useful rep range of the four main lifts. Sets above about eight reps become a test of shoulder endurance and bracing rather than of pressing strength, and the estimate degrades faster than it does on bench. Stick to sets of two to six if you want a number worth programming from.
Strict versus push press is the other thing no formula can see, and the gap is large — often 20% or more. Enter strict press sets if you want a strict press estimate.
Why the press is the most honest of the four lifts
There is almost nowhere to hide on an overhead press. A squat can be shortened by a few inches, a deadlift can be pulled with a rounded back for an extra 20 lb, and a bench press can be bounced or over-arched. The press has none of those options: the bar either goes overhead and locks out or it does not, and the failure is visible from across the room.
The practical consequence is that a press number tends to be a real number. It is also the lift that moves slowest, which people find discouraging until they notice that the increments are smaller in absolute terms rather than in percentage terms. Five pounds on a 135 lb press is the same relative jump as fifteen on a 405 lb deadlift.
What a press number says about the rest of your training
The overhead press standard sits at roughly a third to a half of the deadlift standard at every training level — see the strength standards table for the multiples we publish. If your press is far below that ratio, the usual causes are that it is the lift you train least and that it is the lift most limited by bracing rather than by shoulder strength. If it is far above, you probably press often and pull rarely.
The other reason to track it: the press is the lift where a shoulder problem shows up first, because it is the only one of the four that takes the joint through a full overhead range under load. A press that stalls or hurts while the other three keep moving is worth paying attention to.
Methodology
The same seven regressions used everywhere on this site, with the median reported and the full range shown. Sources and rounding rules are on how these calculators work.
Limitations, stated plainly
These equations were not fitted on overhead press data. The press is the lift where a small technical difference — leg drive, layback, bar path — moves the number most, so treat the estimate as a range and not as a fact.
The absolute loads are also small enough that plate granularity becomes a real constraint. A 5 lb jump on a 95 lb press is a 5.3% increase, which is a large step; if you have fractional plates, the press is the lift where they earn their keep. It also means the precision of the estimate is largely academic — the difference between 157 and 159 lb is smaller than the smallest jump you can actually load.
Above about eight reps every one of the seven equations drifts, and on this lift they drift further than usual, because a high-rep press set ends when your midsection gives out rather than when your shoulders do. That is a different failure from the one the equations were fitted on.
Treat this as a starting point for programming, never as a number to attempt cold. Warm up properly and, if you are pressing near a maximum, do it in a rack with the pins set. This is a fitness estimate, not medical advice, and not a substitute for a professional who can actually see you.