307 lb works out to 2x45 + 1x35 + 1x5 per side plus the bar — call it 305 lb in practice, since gyms rarely stock the odd change. At 8 reps the formulas are starting to drift apart — 19 lb between the lowest and highest here — which is the method telling you the estimate is getting soft. Treat the lower end as the safer number. Your 245 lb set represents about 80% of the estimated max.
Why 8 reps widens the answer
Eight reps is where this method starts costing you accuracy. 294 to 313 lb is a 6.2% band, and a set of eight tests how long you can hold a brace as much as how much force you can produce. Wathan and Mayhew were built on bench-press data containing long sets and read high here; Brzycki reads low. The median, 307 lb, is a compromise between two genuinely different claims rather than a consensus.
Training loads from a 307 lb max
Programmes are written as percentages of the max, not as absolute weights. From 307 lb, rounded to the nearest 5 lb:
| Percentage | Load | Typical set |
|---|---|---|
| 95% | 290 lb | Heavy single |
| 90% | 275 lb | Doubles and triples |
| 85% | 260 lb | Sets of four to five |
| 80% | 245 lb | Sets of six |
| 75% | 230 lb | Sets of eight |
| 70% | 215 lb | Volume work, ten or more |
307 lb is 2x45 + 1x35 + 1x5 per side plus the bar — 305 lb loaded. Plate maths gets easier at this weight, because most of the jumps land on whole 10s and 25s. The bottom three rows of that table are worth rounding generously; the top two are where you want to be precise, since 5 lb at 95% of 307 lb is the difference between a single and a missed single.
The formulas behind this answer, and their limitations
The table above the fold is Epley (1985), Brzycki (1993), Lombardi (1989), O'Conner (1989), Wathan (1994), Lander (1985) and Mayhew (1992), each applied to 245 lb for 8 reps; the headline figure is their median. All seven assume a set taken close to failure with clean technique. At 8 reps you are at the top of the band these equations were fitted on, and beyond it they diverge fast, so 307 lb is a ceiling rather than a target. They also under-rate strong, experienced lifters, who hold a higher percentage of max at any rep count than the regression average. The full account — the populations behind each equation, what a bounced rep does to it, and why we stop at ten reps — is set out on the methodology page. Warm up thoroughly and use safety bars or a spotter before going anywhere near 307 lb. This is a training estimate, not medical advice.