273 lb works out to 2x45 + 1x25 per side plus the bar — call it 275 lb in practice, since gyms rarely stock the odd change. At 7 reps the formulas are starting to drift apart — 15 lb between the lowest and highest here — which is the method telling you the estimate is getting soft. Treat the lower end as the safer number. Your 225 lb set represents about 82% of the estimated max.
Why 7 reps widens the answer
At seven reps the estimate is getting soft. The seven equations now disagree by 15 lb, 5.5% of the answer, and the disagreement is systematic rather than random: Brzycki flattens out as reps climb while Epley keeps rising, so the higher figures in the table above come from the formulas doing the most extrapolating. If you are writing a programme off this number, work from the lower half of the range.
Training loads from a 273 lb max
Programmes are written as percentages of the max, not as absolute weights. From 273 lb, rounded to the nearest 5 lb:
| Percentage | Load | Typical set |
|---|---|---|
| 95% | 260 lb | Heavy single |
| 90% | 245 lb | Doubles and triples |
| 85% | 230 lb | Sets of four to five |
| 80% | 220 lb | Sets of six |
| 75% | 205 lb | Sets of eight |
| 70% | 190 lb | Volume work, ten or more |
273 lb is 2x45 + 1x25 per side plus the bar — 275 lb loaded. Plate maths gets easier at this weight, because most of the jumps land on whole 10s and 25s. The bottom three rows of that table are worth rounding generously; the top two are where you want to be precise, since 5 lb at 95% of 273 lb is the difference between a single and a missed single.
The formulas behind this answer, and their limitations
The table above the fold is Epley (1985), Brzycki (1993), Lombardi (1989), O'Conner (1989), Wathan (1994), Lander (1985) and Mayhew (1992), each applied to 225 lb for 7 reps; the headline figure is their median. All seven assume a set taken close to failure with clean technique. At 7 reps you are still inside the fitted band, but conditioning is now affecting the result alongside strength, and the seven have begun to curve away from each other. They also under-rate strong, experienced lifters, who hold a higher percentage of max at any rep count than the regression average. The full account — the populations behind each equation, what a bounced rep does to it, and why we stop at ten reps — is set out on the methodology page. Warm up thoroughly and use safety bars or a spotter before going anywhere near 273 lb. This is a training estimate, not medical advice.